Chris Williams' Eights Week predictions

[<<] [>>] by Chris Williams
6th September 2000 (AC - Championships)

It is that time of year again - time to predict the eight's winners.

President's Cup at Hurlingham
The 'President's' is weakened this year with the absence of current holder and world number 1 Robert Fulford and Mac players Colin Irwin and David Openshaw; however world number 2 Reg Bamford is making a rare appearance in the event. Reg finished bottom with only 1 win on his last appearance at Nottingham in 1997. This year the event is being held at Hurlingham (first time since 1996), on the front lawns, where Reg has such a good Opens record. The event is especially difficult to predict this year with Chris Clarke, Stephen Mulliner, David Maugham and Bamford all being possible winners. I cannot see any of the other four winning the event, namely Phil Cordingley, who did well on his last appearance in 1997 and had a very good start to the season, Mark Avery, who has hardly played this year and has had a habit of dropping out from the eights, Steve Comish, who is coming back into form after such a disappointing 1999 which cost him a place in the GB Mac team, and debutante Ed Cunningham, who can destroy anyone on his day, but has a habit of losing concentration when he is finding things too easy, which they can get on the easy front lawns at Hurlingham. Much will depend on who is hitting in the best and who can finish the triples. The triple completion percentage for all these players, apart from Cordingley, is very high so expect to possibly see a record number this year.

So my President's Cup prediction is
1 Mulliner
2 Maugham
3 Bamford
4 Clarke
5 Cunningham
6 Comish
7 Avery
8 Cordingley

This year the Chairman's Salver is being held at Colchester, which is hosting an eight for the first time since 1991 and only the second time since 1984.

This year's Chairman's contains 6 players making their debut in the event, and two players who have won the event; Jeff Dawson, the current holder and David Goacher, a 2 times winner. Goacher has not played much this year, but has always had an excellent record in the eights. The format of the eights seems to favour his very deliberate (slow!) style of play. Of the eight originally selected players Matthew Burrow has withdrawn which has led to the promotion of Jeremy Dyer. However Jeremy in the previous two years has not turned his top ranked status in the Spencer Ell into game wins having finished 6th on both occasions, so based on this may well struggle this year. Of the 6 debutantes Patrick Hort and Chris Farthing have not played in an eight before. I have not seen Patrick play so cannot comment, but he has played a lot this year and his record in the last 2 months has been impressive.

Of the others Ed Duckworth has won the Spencer Ell Cup on his last two appearances in it and so must be in with a shout in the Chairman's, though he has not played much this year; Robin Brown has had a good season and has done a lot of triples as has Dave Kibble.

My Chairman's Salver prediction is
1 Dawson
2 Goacher
3 Duckworth
4 Brown
5 Hort
6 Farthing
7 Kibble
8 Dyer

The Spencer Ell Cup will be held at Budleigh Salterton. Don Gaunt, after 6 consecutive years in the Chairman's, has been moved down into the Spencer Ell. Don has not played much this year, but has always done well in the eights (he won the Chairman's in 1997) and I expect him to be near the top of the leader board again. Michael Heap, having lost in the play off to Kibble two years ago, should again do well, though the uneven lawns at Budleigh may well count against his precise play. Michael plays very little but this never seems to affect him. Interestingly he told me two years ago that he thought he was playing as well nowadays as he did 20 years ago when he played for GB in the Mac, won the Opens and was a regular President's Cup player. Does this indicate how much the standard of play has risen in recent years.

Tony Le Moignan did well last year in his first Spencer Ell and has had a very good season this year, having announcing that he had retired from the game 2 or 3 years ago. Tony, who is very determined, should prove quite difficult to beat, though again the uneven Budleigh lawns could count against him. Chris Patmore has never done well in the eights, always finishing in the bottom two and so based on that record should not trouble the leader board. David Magee has not had a particularly good season, though he did finish as runner up to Ed Duckworth last year. Graham Gale has been out injured for the last 2 months and so might be quite poor. Tony Mrozinski, the replacement for the promoted Dyer, has not played as well as he can this year, but has usually done well in the Spencer Ell, having come close to winning on a number of occasions. Peter Taylor, the surprise selection in many people's eyes, knows the lawns at Budleigh well, but has very little other experience outside the north west.

My Spencer Ell Cup prediction is
1 Heap
2 Gaunt
3 Le Moignan
4 Mrozinski
5 Patmore
6 Magee
7 Gale
8 Taylor

If anyone drops out in the next few days then Sam Tudor will be promoted into the Spencer Ell.

The Selector's Weekend takes place this year at Sidmouth. The event was started in the mid eighties as weekend event for those players who did not have time to play in the eights, who just failed to be selected or who are improving and would benefit from the experience. The event was not held in very high regard in the early 90s because anyone who entered got in and it seemed to be run using various ad hoc formats. In the last few years the event has changed and has become a 16 player event run as a Swiss over three days and hence must be taken more seriously. Firm favourite this year must be David Harrison-Wood, who on current form would be a certain Spencer Ell selection and possibly a Chairman's selection (he beat me with a sixth turn tp on Sunday). However the selections were made at the Opens in early July when David was not playing so well.

Other players in with a chance are James Death, Chris Williams, Sam Tudor and Ian Vincent.

Interestingly at the time of the selections in July the top 24 ranked available players were the 24 picked for the eights. Since then Harrison-Wood, James Death and Ian Vincent have gone above David Magee.

Based on the birth days sent to me and a best guess of the others the average age in each eight is roughly:

President's Cup 37 (eldest 47, youngest 26ish)
Chairman's Salver 35 (eldest 46ish, youngest 27ish)
Spencer Ell Cup about 45 (eldest about 60, youngest about 32)

Note. In each of the eights, all players play each of the other players twice. The order of play is fixed beforehand, as is the winner of each toss and all games are single banked. All the eights events will be September 7-10

The pre-event rankings for all the players in the Selection events are shown below, complete with the order the Selectors picked them in for promotion purposes. This list includes the Northern Championships, the Scottish CA matches against the Welsh and English CAs and Southwick Week. Games are number of games played in 2000

Grade Games Wins Index
2 Bamford RL [SA] 2744 63 49 2814 P
3 Mulliner SN 2723 80 58 2673 P
4 Maugham DB 2713 101 75 2620 P
6 Clarke CD 2596 69 47 2610 P
7 Cunningham AE [I] 2537 66 50 2627 P
8 Avery MN 2514 35 25 2534 P
9 Comish S 2492 45 31 2544 P
14 Dawson JP 2425 47 28 2366 CS1

15 Cordingley P 2419 82 53 2434 P
17 Le Moignan AS [Jer] 2393 49 32 2431 SE4
18 Dyer JS 2391 58 37 2395 CS8
19 Duckworth ET 2390 19 10 2343 CS4
20 Farthing CN 2386 50 31 2420 CS7
21 Brown RJ 2372 66 44 2416 CS6
22 Hort PMG 2372 105 69 2403 CS5
23 Goacher DJ 2370 37 21 2309 CS3

25 Kibble DJ 2364 100 65 2385 CS2
26 Heap MEW 2344 12 7 2338 SE1
28 Harrison-Wood D 2325 78 50 2380 SW
29 Gaunt DL 2319 44 29 2308 SE2
30 Death JF 2302 26 18 2232 SW
31 Patmore CJ 2299 38 22 2273 SE6
34 Gale GK 2246 37 22 2214 SE5
37 Taylor PM 2243 42 25 2226 SE7

40 Vincent IG 2233 39 24 2227 SW
43 Magee DJ [S] 2224 59 35 2116 SE3
44 Williams CN [W] 2220 38 20 2242 SW
45 Tudor GSJ [W] 2212 36 22 2220 SW
51 Mrozinski AJ [W] 2181 33 15 2181 SE8
52 Smith PL 2174 35 21 2191 SW
54 Jenkins RS 2166 39 24 2192 SW
60 Whittaker FL 2117 33 17 2089 SW
68 Weston T 2062 46 22 2079 SW
85 Bennett GJ 2013 58 31 2061 SW
96 Smith Br 1967 48 27 1989 SW
97 Burrow S Mrs [Jer] 1964 26 5 1999 SW
98 Carter KJ 1963 32 16 2003 SW
101 Hopewell CG [S] 1958 43 20 1950 SW
108 Rangeley MW 1925 17 10 1937 SW
110 Bradforth L Miss 1915 70 28 1912 SW

P = President's Cup (Selectors do not place them in order)
CSx = Chairman's Salver (x is Selector's order)
SEx = Spencer Ell (x is Selector's order)
SW = Selector's Weekend